A studio for clearer seeing
Crux
Most thinking tools help you argue. Crux helps you update. Stake a prior. Take the other vantage. Leave with a posterior, a crux, and a record.
01
Stake a prior
Say how sure you are before you look. Otherwise the report will write the number for you.
02
Steel, then object
The strongest version of the other side first. Cheap objections are a kind of hiding.
03
Name the crux
The observation that would actually change a mind. If you cannot name it, you are not arguing — you are identifying.
Today on the range
Sound travels faster in water than in air.
Assign a probability. Then find out.
A trap, waiting
What comes to mind
The mind samples headlines, not base rates.
The arithmetic
A 99% accurate test on a 1% condition.
The posterior writes itself. It is not 99.
Try an assay
- Social media is the primary cause of the rise in teen anxiety and depression since 2010.Teen mental health
- Nuclear power is among the safest large-scale energy sources when measured in deaths per terawatt-hour.Nuclear safety
- Most published research findings are false.Published research
- Human-caused greenhouse gas emissions are the dominant driver of observed global warming since 1950.Climate
The first principle is that you must not fool yourself — and you are the easiest person to fool.
Richard Feynman